The RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM TOURISM, MONETARY FACTORS, AND OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
Keywords:
Exchange Rate, ARDL, Foreign Tourist Arrivals, Money Supply, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Oil Volatility Index
Abstract
This study examines the impact of foreign tourist arrivals (WIS), money supply (JUB), foreign exchange reserves (CADEV), and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate (IDR/USD) from January 2015 to December 2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results indicate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the short run, an increase in foreign tourist arrivals tends to strengthen the Rupiah, while increases in money supply and OVX lead to Rupiah depreciation. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves play a significant role in stabilizing and strengthening the Rupiah. In the long run, only money supply and foreign exchange reserves have a statistically significant effect on the exchange rate, whereas the effects of foreign tourist arrivals and OVX are temporary. The Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient of −0.314825 indicates that approximately 31.48% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected each month, implying that the adjustment toward long-run equilibrium takes about three months. The model explains 61.23% of the variation in exchange rate movements. These findings provide important policy implications for Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Tourism of the Republic of Indonesia, and financial market participants in maintaining exchange rate stability.
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Pratama, R. F., & Yuliawan, D. (2026). The relationship between economic development to poverty in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis (JEMB), 5(1), 385–394. https://doi.org/10.47233/jemb.v5i1.4563
Umara, G., Gunarto, T., & Yuliawan, D. (2024). Influence Human Development Index, open unemployment rate, and Product Gross Regional Domesticity per capita on poverty in Indonesia. Revenue Journal: Management and Entrepreneurship, 2(1), 34–52. https://doi.org/10.61650/rjme.v2i1.561
Anwar, M. Z., Aida, N., & Arivina, R. Y. T. (2025). The effect of open unemployment and education on poverty in Indonesia. International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences (IJAMESC), 3(4). https://doi.org/10.61990/ijamesc.v3i4.556
Alfira Nurjannah & Maya Panorama. (2022). Pengaruh kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap nilai tukar pada masa pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 1–14.
Atems, B., Kapper, S., & Lam, E. (2022). The impact of oil price and oil volatility index (OVX) on the exchange rate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economies, 10(11), 272. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10110272
Astuty, F. (2023). Determinan nilai tukar Rupiah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 11(2), 55–70.
Bank Indonesia. (2024). Statistik ekonomi dan keuangan Indonesia (SEKI). Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2024). Data kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara 2015–2024. Jakarta: BPS. https://www.bps.go.id
Branson, W. H. (1983). Macroeconomic determinants of real exchange risk. In R. J. Herring (Ed.), Managing Foreign Exchange Risk (pp. 33–62). Cambridge University Press.
Cassel, G. (1918). Abnormal deviations in international exchanges. The Economic Journal, 28(112), 413–415.
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). (2024). CBOE crude oil ETF volatility index (OVX). https://www.cboe.com
Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1161–1176.
Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1980). Exchange rates and the current account. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 960–971.
Fadilah, M. R. (2021). Dampak penurunan kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara terhadap cadangan devisa dan nilai tukar: Bukti dari Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 10(2), 89–104.
Frankel, J. A. (2006). On the yuan: The choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate. CESifo Economic Studies, 52(2), 246–275.
Frenkel, J. A. (1976). A monetary approach to the exchange rate: Doctrinal aspects and empirical evidence. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2), 200–224.
Hakim, A., & Aji, R. S. (2025). Factors affecting the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13(1), 1–18.
Kocoglu, M., et al. (2023). Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in ASEAN economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 85, 101597.
Korley, M., & Giouvris, E. (2022). The impact of oil price and oil volatility index (OVX) on the exchange rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from oil importing/exporting countries. Energies, 15(8), 2828. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15082828
Maghfiroh, R., & Jayadi, M. (2024). Money supply and exchange rate in ASEAN: An ARDL panel approach. Journal of International Economics and Finance, 14(3), 33–50.
Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Rey, H. (2020). U.S. monetary policy and the global financial cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754–2776. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa019
Narayan, S., Falianty, T., & Tobing, L. (2019). The influence of oil prices on Indonesia's exchange rate. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 22(3), 303–322.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pratiwik, D., & Prajanti, S. D. W. (2023). Rupiah exchange rate: The determinants and impact of shocks on the economy. Journal of Economics and Policy, 16(1), 88–110.
Rey, H. (2015). Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. NBER Working Paper No. 21162. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2016). The euro effect: Tourism flows and the common European currency. Tourism Economics, 22(3), 401–410.
Syamad, A., & Handoyo, R. D. (2023). The effects of money supply on exchange rate: Evidence of Dornbusch overshooting model in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 15(1), 22–38.
Tobin, J. (1969). A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29.
Usman Bashir. (2025). Evaluating the impact of oil price volatility and renewable energy adoption on Pakistan's economic growth. Energy Economics, 132, 107418.
Zhang, Z., Liu, W., Wang, H., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Volatility predictability in crude oil futures: Evidence based on OVX, GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Finance Research Letters, 55, 103973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103973
Kuncoro, M. (2016). Mudah Memahami dan Menganalisis Indikator Ekonomi. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.
Kocoglu, M., Yildirim, H., & Bayar, Y. (2023). Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in ASEAN economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 85, 101597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101597
Hakim, A., & Aji, R. S. (2025). Factors affecting the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 13(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.v13n1a1
Sitorus, N. H. (2020). Implikasi guncangan nilai tukar terhadap cadangan devisa, suku bunga dan inflasi. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 9(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v9i1.19
Marselina. (2015). Desentralisasi fiskal: Tinjauan teoritis dan empiris. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(2), 1–15. https://jurnal.feb.unila.ac.id
Arivina, R., & Emalia, Z. (2018). Pendampingan e-Warung Kelompok Usaha Bersama (KUBE) Jasa Maju Jaya di Kelurahan Sepang Jaya Bandar Lampung. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7(3), 317–328. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v7i3
Emalia, Z. (2018). Telaah peran sektor pertanian dalam perekonomian Provinsi Lampung: Sebuah eksplorasi dengan data input-output. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7(1), 51–74. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v7i1.10
Budiarty, I., Emalia, Z., & Hapsari, C. N. (2023). Keputusan individu melakukan mobilitas non-permanen ke Kota Bandar Lampung di Provinsi Lampung. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(2), 72–81. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v12i1.647
Pratama, R. F., & Yuliawan, D. (2026). The relationship between economic development to poverty in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis (JEMB), 5(1), 385–394. https://doi.org/10.47233/jemb.v5i1.4563
Umara, G., Gunarto, T., & Yuliawan, D. (2024). Influence Human Development Index, open unemployment rate, and Product Gross Regional Domesticity per capita on poverty in Indonesia. Revenue Journal: Management and Entrepreneurship, 2(1), 34–52. https://doi.org/10.61650/rjme.v2i1.561
Anwar, M. Z., Aida, N., & Arivina, R. Y. T. (2025). The effect of open unemployment and education on poverty in Indonesia. International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences (IJAMESC), 3(4). https://doi.org/10.61990/ijamesc.v3i4.556
Published
2026-06-15
How to Cite
Annisa, E., & Yuliawan, D. (2026). The RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM TOURISM, MONETARY FACTORS, AND OIL PRICE VOLATILITY. Journal Informatic, Education and Management (JIEM), 8(2), 475-488. https://doi.org/10.61992/jiem.v8i2.378
Section
Articles
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